How to save £160,000,000,000

At present, the Government spends £160,000,000,000 more than it gets from tax. That's about £2,500 for every man, woman and child in the UK.

In economists' language, This Is Not Good.

Earlier this week, the Government announced plans to save £6bn: that's about 1% of the total govenment expenditure. Clearly we need to do more.

Yesterday I suggested how the government might avoid wasting several million pounds in the NHS. Today, in the Telegraph, there is an article by Chris Mullin who was a Labour minister ten years ago. At the time he suggested how to save money by reducing the cost of the wasteful Government Car Service. (Why oh why didn't we have more Labour ministers like this?)

Almost certainly anyone reading this blog will know of some area of waste in government money where savings could be made.

So, if you were the Chancellor, what would you cut?

By all means put your suggestions as comments on this blog. But also write to your local MP. You can find his or her contact details here.

We might well find that we can save that £160,000,000,000 (golly, my hand gets tired typing it) a few pounds at a time.

Good front-line surgery

There's a lot of talk about "cutting front line services" as the government tries to reduce the terrifying deficit.

This assumes that (a) the savings can't be made anywhere else but front line services and (b) all front line services give value.

Most people focus on (a). I'd like to focus on (b) and point out an example of front line services that are wasteful and potentially actually harmful.

In February this year, Parliament's Science and Technology Committee published a report which urged the government to withdraw funding and licensing of homeopathy.

Homeopathy is a front-line service. However, the parliamentary enquiry found that it had no better effect than placebos. Indeed, the British Medical Association has declared that homeopathy is witchcraft. Despite this the NHS funds four homeopthic hospitals and spend many millions on homeopathic treatment.

Here's a front-line service we should be happy to cut.

Trussssst in me ...

I was at a meeting last week. In an open question session the issue of trust was raised. The person answering the question was very clear: "Lack of trust comes from either a failure to communicate or a failure to deliver", he said.

Those words stuck with me. They really get to the crux of the matter. In light of the events of the last few days, can the Tories - or the electorate - trust the LibDems?

On May 7th, Nick Clegg said the Conservatives, as the biggest party, had the right to form a government first. Following that, negotiations were opened between the two parties. Yesterday it appeared that secret negotiations had been going on at the same time between Labour and the LibDems as well.

It's clear that the Conservatives have made significant concessions to the LibDems. It's far from clear what the LibDems have brought to the discussions. It's hard to view their actions as anything other than seeking party political advantage, despite their claims to be putting national interest first.

There may still be a Tory-LibDem pact of some kind. But if there is, it is difficult to imagine how well it will work when there is likely to be constant suspicion that at any time it suits them the LibDems may jump ship.

This is no way to run a country and, judging from LibDem blogs, there are many party members who realise the electorate may not forgive Nick Clegg, even if David Cameron does.

DIY Tips: How to Build a Cabinet

The first time I built a bedroom cupboard it ended up with all the drawers the right way up and the frame and doors upside down. However, today's challenge is a mental one, rather than needing any physical dexterity, so perhaps I may do better (and perhaps not!).

Let's assume for a moment that the Tories and LibDems do form a coalition. Who would you appoint to the various roles? To make it more fun (a) you don't have to fill all the offices and (b) you can have a serious list or a fun or even mischievous list. Here is mine.

Prime Minister: David Cameron
Chancellor: Ken Clarke, because he's done it before and would reassure the City.
Foreign Secretary: William Hague
Home Secretary: Nick Clegg
Olympics: Sir Menzies Campbell
Business, Innovation and Skills: Vince Cable

with the rest being the Tory shadow cabinet. This gives one of the great offices of state to the LibDems, puts a past captain of the Great Britain Olympics team in charge of the Olympics and gives Vince Cable the challenge of making his ideas work.

For the Tories, Ken Clarke would bring immense successful experience to the position, and it's hard to realistically imagine Hague or Cameron in other roles. Not in the above list but worthy of mention is Michael Gove, who would have the opportunity to make his radical and attractive ideas on education work. The more I see and hear of Gove, the more I like him: he could be a real star of the next government.

What of George Osborne? Make him chairman of the Conservative Party. There are persistent stories that "the City doesn't like him" and we really need the next government and the City to work together to rebuild the economy. And who knows? He may be like a vintage wine that matures well.

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For reference, the last government cabinet posts were

Prime Minister, First Lord of the Treasury and Minister for the Civil Service
Leader of the House of Commons and Lord Privy Seal
Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills, First Secretary and Lord President of the Council
Chancellor of the Exchequer
Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs
Secretary of State for Justice and Lord Chancellor
Secretary of State for the Home Department
Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
Secretary of State for International Development
Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government,
Secretary of State for Children, Schools and Families,
Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change,
Secretary of State for Health, Secretary of State for Northern Ireland,
Leader of the House of Lords and Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster,
Minister for the Cabinet Office, and for the Olympics and Paymaster General,
Secretary of State for Scotland,
Secretary of State for Work and Pensions,
Chief Secretary to the Treasury,
Secretary of State for Wales,
Secretary of State for Defence,
Secretary of State for Transport,
Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport

Bite the bullet

If there's one thing the electorate expects of politicians it's that they run the country.

At 11am today, this seems like a challenge. With 30 or so seats still to declare, no party can get a majority. The way the rest are likely to go:

• A coalition of Labour and LibDems would not have a majority
  
• A working arrangement between Tories and Irish Unionists would similarly fail
  

The markets hate this. The FTSE is down 10% since the likelihood of a hung parliament became clear. The pound has slipped on forex markets. The reason is simple: without a strong government, it's likely that the hard choices urgently needed to fix the economy won't be made.

As a Tory, I wish we had a majority. The reality is that we don't. That leaves two choices: either a minority Conservative government or an agreement or coalition government with the LibDems.

For many Conservatives, working with the LibDems is anathema. There are many LibDems who feel the same way about Tories. There is a simple message for these hardcore party members: stick to your position and voters will reject you at the next election. You have to put the interests of the nation first, and the nation needs a strong government now.

It's time to face reality. Things didn't go as well as the LibDems or Tories had hoped.

Deal with it.

Precisely Wrong

As I write, Sky News are reporting various polls with Tory support between 33% and 37% and LibDem support between 23% and 28%. The parties and commentators hang on every percent with elation or despair.

But they are wrong to do so.

These polls are spuriously precise (which we don't really care about), but not necessarily accurate (which we desperately do). If, for example, a pollster says Tory support is 35%, what they mean is something like this:

"I am highly confident that Tory support is 35%, give or take 3%. When I did the sample. And that is if people are telling the truth."

See those bits in bold text. What they mean is that if you take those numbers as being accurate, more fool you. It's a statistical game and you need to remember that. Don't be in raptures when your party goes up a percent or two on in despair when it's down a percent or two: that may well just be "sampling error".

All you can really conclude from today's polls is that the Conservatives are a bit ahead and LibDems and Labour are neck-and-neck.

Probably.

So get back to your campaigning, before the Fat Lady sings.

La Cage Aux Folles

No, you're wrong.

This is not about politics.

I had the pleasure on Saturday evening of going to an intimate theatre in the south of Hampshire and watching perhaps the best amateur production I have ever seen. Actually, there is no "perhaps" about it. It was delightful.

The theatre is a converted small barn on the edge of Fareham: it holds just 80 people. It may astonish you to hear that they don't have a revolving stage, or room for acrobats or tigers. They have to rely on pure talent, and they have it by the bucketload. Their production of "La Cage Aux Folles" was spectacular, despite a host of challenges, which started with having to translate it from the French.

There was one problem: the audience was laughing so much in the second act it was often difficult to hear the words. No matter: the acting was all that mattered.

The play was put on by The Titchfield Festival Theatre and, although its run has ended, they have a full programme of forthcoming events, which I thoroughly recommend.

They even let you take photographs (no flash). Take that, West End.

Three of the Best

As a Tory, I hope the Conservatives win a majority.

As a realist, I accept this might not happen. I think a hung parliament would be bad for the UK, but perhaps it's time to think the unthinkable: what if we get one?

The most likely coalition, I hope, would be Tory/LibDem. So here's a challenge: if that came about, which three policies would you like to see the new government implement? The rules are simple: you must choose one Tory policy, one LibDem and the third can be from either party, or perhaps one of your own. Here are mine.

Education

The Tory policy here looks excellent, as I've written earlier. It's a real incentive for improvement and in a globally competitive world, nothing is more important than a good education.

Tax

I am sorry, but I love the LibDem proposal to raise the threshold at which you pay tax to £10,000. It's almost a Tory policy, it simplifies tax and it's a vote-winner.

Tax again

A policy of my own: eliminate 95% of tax law, and make the UK a better place to do business. Sustained recovery will depend on people wanting to do business in this country, yet our tax code is incredibly complicated.

So that's my three. What would you choose?

For your information you can get the Conservative manifesto here and the LibDem one here.

Please, David Cameron

Is Cameron good enough?

A mutual acquaintance put me on to David Cameron six years ago. I must say he impressed, with fresh views and the intention and ability to bring 21st century ideas into the heart of the Conservative Party. Looking back at his record, he has delivered on a lot of that and made the Tory Party electable again.

And yet, I can't help but feel disappointed.

I've been wondering about this over the past couple of weeks.

Is it because too many of his inner circle are an elite? No, that's an irritant, but he has done so much to open the party to people of merit.

What about his ideas? Many of them are very good. The schools policy, for example, should see the biggest improvement in education for a generation or two. Inheritance tax will help hundreds of thousands if not millions of Britons. And despite what Gordon may say, there is ample room for cutting waste in government without cutting front line services.

No, it's not these or a dozen other reasons.

The problem is that I want a leader to inspire me, and I don't yet see that in Cameron. What I do see is earnestness and sometimes grim determination. What I want to see is less someone who talks about Big Society and more someone who says "Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country."

I know that Cameron can do it. His early speeches sparkled with enthusiasm.

If he wants to lead the country, he needs to find that inspirational touch again.